by Larry Smith
by Larry Smith
by Larry Smith
by Larry Smith
When Zika and other mosquito-borne viruses such as Dengue and Chikungunya invade a region without prior immunity, between 25-65% of the population will become exposed.
So there’s no point counting confirmed cases. Doctors say the current Zika outbreak in the Bahamas should reasonably be expected to affect tens of thousands of people. And as a result, the Centers for Disease Control in Atlanta have issued a travel alert.
The virus is primarily spread by mosquitoes, but it is also spread from mother to baby during pregnancy, and during sexual intercourse. The CDC has advised pregnant women not to travel to the Bahamas, and travellers are being encouraged to use condoms or not have sex at all while in the Bahamas.
According to Tourism Director Joy Jibrilu, “when it comes to the management of threats to public health, we must (act) with transparency and openness. We are keenly aware of what the implications are."
Zika has been recognized for decades in Africa, so a significant proportion of the population there has been exposed and is therefore immune. Unless the virus mutates, only sporadic cases will continue to occur.
But the Bahamas - and other countries in the Western Hemisphere and Europe - have never been previously exposed and so are fertile ground for the Zika virus, as long as the mosquito vectors are around.
"We see cyclical infections with Dengue as the number of non-immune people grows between epidemics,” one local doctor told me. "Hopefully, this epidemic will pass within the next 12 months or so, but until it does the government should focus on discouraging women from becoming pregnant."
This is because the major complication from this generally mild disease is the effect it can have on a developing fetus. There is evidence that Zika infection in pregnancy causes birth defects, including brain abnormalities.
Scientists are working on 18 different vaccines, but only one has made it to testing phase. An effective vaccine is not expected to be ready before 2018.
The best way to protect yourself is to use mosquito repellents and remove breeding sites - which means any outdoor container filled with water. Public health authorities are also fogging communities with pesticides.
by Larry Smith
American presidential candidate Hillary Clinton had to apologise recently for calling some of her opponent’s supporters “deplorable”, meaning they are racist, sexist, homophobic or xenophobic.
In fairness, she did add that many Trump supporters were desperate for change because they felt let down by the system. Still, it is never a good idea for candidates to denigrate voters during an election campaign.
Just think back to the 2012 Republican nominee’s comment that 47 per cent of voters who take government handouts would support Barack Obama “no matter what”. Mitt Romney effectively wrote off half the American electorate with that comment.
And of course, we are all familiar with Donald Trump’s persistent alienation of non-white voters. These voters are an increasingly important factor in American presidential elections, but Trump has focused more on exploiting the anger and vitriol of the white working class.
According to well-known geopolitical analyst George Friedman, white workers have become a disaffected group in the United States - due largely to the collapse of their living standards, combined with the changing values of a more diverse society.
They see the political elite as near criminal and entirely incompetent, with politicians saying whatever they need to say, while ignoring the problems that affect those earning below the median income level.
These lower middle class Americans are increasingly unable to live the life they could have expected a generation ago, which breeds resentment. And things are similar in Europe, where the governing elites seem oblivious to the rising potential for social and political upheaval.
"When those who have skills and are prepared to work can’t get a job that will allow their families to live reasonably well, this is a problem,” Friedman says. "When vast numbers of people are entering this condition, this is a crisis. When there is a crisis, these people will turn to politicians who speak to them and give them hope.”
The general facts on rising inequality are clear. The world’s richest 1 per cent now own more than the rest of us combined. Power is being used to skew the economic system to increase the gap between the richest and the rest.
As French analyst Philippe Maze-Sencier wrote, people are worried: “Their world is in turmoil, their children’s future suddenly uncertain, their way of living under threat. The perceived impotence of traditional parties (has) contributed to making...hard-right populist movements acceptable if not mainstream."
I would argue that there are clear parallels to this trend in the Bahamas, but we have yet to see the rise of a populist leader who can skilfully exploit the fears and resentments of the masses to effectively attack the status quo.
Many Bahamians view our political parties as bands of brothers organised to protect special interests and avert any serious change. They hold all the cards, promote their own bipartisan interests, restrain attempts at serious reform, and trample on the rights of ordinary people.
Indeed, Friedman’s description of white working class anger in the US could easily be applied to the black working class in the Bahamas: "They see the political elite as near criminal and entirely incompetent, with politicians saying whatever they need to say."
Of course, politicians are not the only members of the governing elite. Important businessmen, wealthy lawyers, doctors and financiers, high-level civil servants, and union leaders are able to exert significant influence over government decisions.
To avoid political and social upheaval, our leaders need to focus on ways to create a better life for most people. This means economic growth and jobs, especially for youth. We have far too much political gamesmanship, lack of accountability, and gravy train corruption - and too little effort to make things better.
Take tourism, for example. It is our biggest economic driver, but we are not growing, adapting or improving this industry. We take it for granted, but the cultural product we market to visitors has deteriorated. And there are no more hotel beds being occupied today than there were a generation ago.
The inevitable result is structural high unemployment. But what is the cause? Is it our inflexible labour markets, where unions regularly threaten to shut the country down? Is it bureaucratic inertia? Is it a lack of private investment? Is it political rent-seeking, corruption and nepotism? Is it because growth and development do not benefit those in control?
Probably a combination of all these factors. But one thing is clear - if we do not find a way to move things forward, reduce our inefficiencies, reform our institutions, and dramatically improve the lives of a majority of our citizens, at some point we could be facing a failed state.
by Larry Smith
If you visit the Stronger Bahamas Facebook page, a recent post proclaims our intention to cut greenhouse emissions by 30 per cent within 15 years, and insists that the government is “delivering" on its promises.
Let me explain. Last year, Prime Minister Perry Christie announced Stronger Bahamas as a “non-partisan public engagement and communications initiative” - with a $4 million taxpayer-funded budget.
The opposition denounced it as a propaganda campaign. And it is certainly true that the communications thrust is to paint a rosy and (many would say) totally unrealistic picture of the current state of affairs in our country.
The Facebook post about carbon emissions is a spectacular case in point. The post referred to Environment Minister Ken Dorsett’s 2015 budget address.
“When we took office (it) was obvious we could not go about business as usual,” he declared back then. “We have made major strides in climate change mitigation and renewable energy deployment."
In support of this vague assertion, Dorsett pointed to a reduction of tariffs on energy-efficient appliances and a new regulatory regime for solar power generation - a regime that has never been implemented.
He went on to insist that the government is “advancing renewable energy options to improve energy security, create jobs and provide for public-private participation in the power sector."
Touting the national energy policy (developed over three administrations and completely out of touch with reality), he said renewables would have a 30 per cent share of our energy mix by 2033 - so far into the future as to be meaningless. Dorsett also envisioned solar power plants on many out islands - including at BAMSI on Andros.
In his latest budget address, Dorsett focused more on the prospects of obtaining international funding for unspecified "climate change mitigation” projects. And he boasted about his election as chairman of the International Renewable Energy Agency.
But despite this portentous appointment, there was no talk of actual renewable energy projects in the Bahamas. It was all about accessing money from whatever source possible for studies - typically a means of delaying real change while looking busy.
In summary, as Dorsett said fantastically, “It should be clear to everyone that we are on our way to a renewable energy future.” And this is the talking point that the Stronger Bahamas campaign was trying to articulate on its Facebook post.
As we said above, it is a totally unrealistic picture - for the following reasons:
by Larry Smith
by Lary Smith
As the government pours millions of unaccountable tax dollars into a political porkbarrel project on Andros called BAMSI, the only two commercial food processing firms in the country have quietly gone out of business - putting at least 20 Bahamians out of work.
P W Albury & Sons, distributors of Champion brand canned products, announced the closure of its Centreville plant last month. And Sawyer’s Food Products shut its Claridge Road factory at the end of 2013. Both had been canning food since the 1950s.
In 1959 Paul Albury, a schoolteacher from Spanish Wells, acquired the defunct J S Johnson canning operation, which traced its origins to the early years of pineapple farming on Eleuthera.
Sawyer’s was founded in Nassau in 1957 by Wesley and Norma Sawyer, operating initially from a small plant in Oakes Field. Wesley had trained in food processing at Arthur Vining Davis’ Three Bays Farm on Eleuthera.
Both companies started out canning tomatoes and pigeon peas supplied by small farmers around the country. Over the years they expanded their product ranges to include beans, jams, sauces - and even items like conch chowder and pig’s feet souse (under the Sawyer’s label).
But for the past 15 years at least both were importing all their raw materials - including produce. In an effort to stay afloat, P. W Albury even began importing pre-canned products from the US to distribute under their own label.
Spokespeople for both families identified two major factors that led to the demise of their companies.
"Bahamians have totally changed their eating habits,” said Caroline Albury, Paul Albury’s granddaughter. “Most rely on fast food outlets now rather than cooking their own meals. That, plus the high overheads, made it impossible to compete."
And according to former plant manager Michael Sawyer, "it was difficult to source raw materials in the right quantities at the right cost. Import controls on competitive foreign products were dropped in the early 2000s, and high local overheads made it difficult to operate."
It boils down to the same old Bahamian story - a tiny fragmented market with low volumes produces no economies of scale. It’s cheaper and easier to import food products from larger countries with major agro industries.
Pineapple farming is a case in point. Exports of canned pineapples began in the mid-1800s from Eleuthera. And the J S Johnson company was formed in 1876 to can pineapples, tomatoes, guavas, grapefruit and other produce at a factory on Union Street in Nassau. Back then, newspaper reports described Eleuthera as “one big flourishing pineapple plantation."
The peak year for Bahamian pineapples was 1892, when more than 8 million were exported. But when Hawaii and the Philippines - with better growing conditions and distribution networks - started producing pineapples, the Bahamas simply could not compete.
By the late 1920s the industry had collapsed. J S Johnson closed its factory and set up an insurance agency. Later the factory was sold to Paul Albury, who moved it to its present site in Centreville. When Paul died in 1964, sons David and James took over and changed the name to P W Albury & Sons. When the sons died, David’s three children kept the company going.
In the 1940s, Wesley Sawyer worked for the Telecoms Department in Rock Sound. He met and married Norma Perpall, who was Arthur Vining Davis’ secretary. Davis - the legendary chairman of Alcoa - was a big developer and landowner on Eleuthera.
Wesley started working at Davis’ Three Bays Farm on a tomato and pineapple canning operation. He went to the US for training, and then moved to Nassau. After working with Carl Claridge, shipping okra in brine to the US, he set up his own canning plant on Crawford Street in Oakes Field, moving to bigger premises on Claridge Road in 1964.
Wesley Sawyer died in 1974, but his wife and two sons - Kenneth and Michael - kept the company operating until December 2013.
by Larry Smith
The Inter-American Development Bank has just published the most comprehensive report ever on crime and violence in the Bahamas.
Researcher Heather Sutton compiled data from multiple sources on the scope and nature of crime and violence in the country. The aim is to establish a baseline against which progress can be measured.
The report surveyed crime prevention and suppression policies, programmes and projects adopted by government and non-governmental organisations, and suggests the most effective ways forward.
In her executive summary, Sutton notes that Bahamian police and public health records "confirm high levels of crime and violence (specifically murder, armed robbery, and rape.) that have consistently risen during the past decade."
Here are the main findings:
•The murder state has doubled over the past decade and is now among the highest in the region - at 31.9 per 100,000 in 2014;
•Victims of homicide are predominantly males between 18 and 25, and retaliation is the main murder motive;
•Over the last five years 86% of all murders took place in New Providence;
•Guns are used to commit most murders, but there are just as many stabbings treated at the Princess Margret Hospital as there are gunshot wounds (288 gunshot wounds and 251 stabbing wounds in 2013);
•The number of gunshot and stabbing wounds treated at the PMH far outweighs the number of murders. There were 4.5 times as many stabbings and shootings treated at the hospital, and these are increasing at an even higher rate than murder;
•Violence against women and children is a major concern, although no surveys have been done on prevalence of either intimate partner violence or sexual violence;
•The average rate of rapes reported over 2009–2013 was 27 per 100,000 population - above the already-high regional average - and rape is highly under-reported;
•Cases of rape treated at the PMH alone were nearly 1.6 times higher than those recorded nationally by the police;
•Unarmed robberies increased 92 per cent, from 2006 to 2013. Armed robberies are much higher in number and have also nearly doubled over the same period;
•Vehicle theft has more than doubled in the last 10 years;
•Eighteen different gangs are operating in The Bahamas. They vary in size, membership, and the extent of involvement with illegal activities;
•There is a lack of empirical research identifying the specific risk and protective factors relevant to crime and violence in The Bahamas;
•The Bahamas needs improved data collection as well as increased data sharing and transparency to gain a better understanding of what works and what doesn’t;
The lack of transparency was a key complaint. The IDB report identifies significant barriers to the sharing and analysis of data. "Much of the information requested for this report was not provided even after extensive requests at the highest levels (and) data sharing even among government entities is not common practice."
This is a critical failure, the report says, because dealing with crime effectively depends on research and objective evaluation of policies, programmes and strategies.
And this requires both transparency and a willingness to invest in data collection, monitoring and evaluation - something no Bahamian government has attempted to do.
by Larry Smith
by Larry Smith