Bahama Pundit

Chrissy Love, Steve McKinney & the Future of ZNS

by Larry Smith

The firing of Christina Thompson (aka Chrissy Love) from the ZNS talk show Immediate Response after the May 7 general election has led some to predict the return of the Pingdom, while others see it as mere tit for tat - since the FNM fired Steve McKinney from the same show right after the 2007 election.

In the current charged partisan atmosphere it may be difficult to differentiate these two terminations, but if you look closely there is a distinction.

The First 100 Days

by Simon

The first 100 days frame is famously the invention of U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt as he first took office in 1933 promising a “New Deal” in response to the Great Depression.  Since then, the frame has been used to evaluate the early days of new presidential administrations.

During the election campaign the PLP employed the frame detailing for voters what the party promised to accomplish during its first 100 days.  The wisdom of utilizing such a frame will become clearer in the months ahead as many will use it in assessing the Christie administration’s first months in office.

But it is not that pledge that is the main thrust of today’s Front Porch.  The first 100 days of a new government also concern the nature of political transitions.  The remarkable thing about the transition of office from the FNM to the PLP is that it was unremarkable.  After a hard fought election, power was transferred peacefully.

Hubert Ingraham conceded defeat.  Perry Christie claimed victory and was sworn in the next day.   Hubert Minnis is now Leader of the Opposition.  There is a new Cabinet in place.  What a wonderful democracy and example to the world! 

And, no, this was not the most contentious general election we have ever had.  There have been elections with more serious incidents of violence and greater invective.  This was not 1962 or 1987 when the will of the people was likely thwarted by widespread irregularities and fraud. 

Are we In For Another Dengue Outbreak?

by Larry Smith

"A widespread outbreak of dengue fever (has) occurred…The disease made its appearance in New Providence in October and spread rapidly. Unless the most stringent measures are taken to control the breeding of (the Aedes aegypti) mosquito, outbreaks of the disease may be expected from time to time."

That account appeared in a 1927 report by Sir Wilfred Beveridge, a top British expert who reviewed public health conditions on New Providence after several tourists died of typhoid. At the time, sanitation conditions on the island were appalling.

But Beveridge's 1927 comment could just as easily have applied to New Providence last summer, when Bahamians had to deal with an unusual epidemic of dengue fever, and the hysteria in some quarters was palpable.

From online discussions and radio talk shows, you would have thought there was a conspiracy afoot to kill Bahamians that the government was desperately trying to cover up. And now, social media sites are already buzzing with concern about a possible new outbreak this year.

Decision 2012

by Simon

“Politics changes when people can’t pay for their home mortgages and can’t afford medical care and can’t send their kids to school. ... It is such a humiliating blow to be the head of a family and be unable to work and provide, that people don’t respond entirely rationally all the time. It can explode in politics in a hard-to-understand way.”

This was the view of former U.S. Vice President Walter Mondale, a veteran politician and observer of politics and the vagaries and vicissitudes of political fortune.  That economic distress is typically decisive in deciding the outcome of an election becomes even more so in periods of greater economic turmoil.

In a 2009 column Front Porch noted:  “While the adage, ‘It’s the economy, stupid!’ was popularized by Bill Clinton during his successful bid for the U.S. presidency in 1992, a country’s economic situation is typically a central election issue, even more so during economic crises.

“No less a figure than British Prime Minister Winston Churchill learned this lesson following the humiliating defeat of his Conservative Party soon after it led an all-party coalition government that secured victory for Great Britain in World War II.

“It was Britain’s first general election since 1935, elections having been suspended until there was an Allied victory in the war.  Held just months following Victory in Europe Day (VE Day), the 1945 election saw a return to normal party politics.

“Months before the election, Churchill’s approval rating stood at 83 percent with the Labour Party given poor odds for victory.  After the opinion polls gave way to the election poll, the Conservatives lost nearly half of its members in parliament...” While voters appreciated Churchill getting them through the war, they turned to Labour during a period of continued rationing and great economic anxiety.

Ingraham Exits Politics as PLP Returns in Bahamas Election

by Larry Smith

So Hubert Alexander Ingraham has been forced to exit, stage left - and just as his personality cult was kicking in big time.

A few days ago, a documentary "chronicling the life, upbringing, and achievements of the prime minister" began airing on television. The film focuses on "Ingraham’s inspirational journey from humble beginnings to the highest public office in service of the people."

We hear that the impetus for this project came from the FNM's campaign consultants, but in my view it was entirely inappropriate for a sitting prime minister. That's the sort of propaganda thing Lynden Pindling did without batting an eye when I was a junior writer at the Bahamas News Bureau in the 1970s and 80s. It's not the sort of thing I would have expected Hubert Ingraham to endorse in the 21st century.

Unfortunately, the film climaxed an out-of-control "Papa" campaign played out to the tune of "Simply the Best" that had to have turned off some voters.

I can understand the FNM's fixation on the papa theme. They tried to turn a derisive label into a term of support (as they had successfully done with Pindling's earlier taunt about Ingraham as a "delivery boy"). But I think the current effort was way over the top and backfired badly when combined with "Ingraham fatigue".

Of course, Ingraham has been down and out before - in 2002, when the entire FNM cabinet was wiped out. But this time there will be no return - age and circumstance will see to that. It will be up to the FNM rump in the House of Assembly to choose a new leader from the nine, mostly new, MPs left standing. Dr Hubert Minnis and Loretta Butler Turner stand out from this reduced line-up.

A Broader Vision for Over-the-Hill

by Simon

There were two big stories coming out of the FNM’s first mass rally of the 2012 general election.  First, Hubert Ingraham unveiled his party’s agenda for the next five years.  In a nod to the internet age and to younger voters, the FNM released its manifesto online as Mr. Ingraham made the announcement.

It was a PR bonanza reinforcing the image of competence and organization of Mr. Ingraham and his government.  It further reinforced the image of tardiness and disorganization of Perry Christie and his party.

Earlier that week Christie announced that the PLP was ready to govern on day one.  Despite this assertion, and an earlier claim that his party was prepared for the campaign, the Opposition was caught flat-footed.  

Almost a week into a four-week campaign, the Opposition failed to produce a manifesto, and this from a party that has been agitating for the Prime Minister to hurry up and name the date of the election.  If the PLP still has not produced a manifesto by today, nomination day, it does not bode well for the party in the minds of many voters.  

The inability to beat or equal the FNM in releasing its manifesto is a major blunder by the Opposition.  When it is released, a part of the story will be the question of why it took so long.  Many voters will ask what such a delay may portend of another Christie administration.